Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.005146 0.005667 0.006229 0.006885 0.007631 0.008456 0.009442
2025-10-12 0.004356 0.005086 0.005937 0.007012 0.008346 0.009965 0.012105
2025-10-19 0.003818 0.004627 0.005617 0.006937 0.008675 0.010927 0.014131
2025-10-26 0.003442 0.004294 0.005378 0.006884 0.008968 0.011818 0.016142
2025-11-02 0.003130 0.003997 0.005135 0.006774 0.009136 0.012525 0.017963
2025-11-09 0.002923 0.003813 0.005014 0.006802 0.009481 0.013501 0.020318
2025-11-16 0.002717 0.003609 0.004841 0.006728 0.009652 0.014221 0.022363
2025-11-23 0.002516 0.003394 0.004631 0.006572 0.009671 0.014686 0.024038
2025-11-30 0.002404 0.003294 0.004577 0.006641 0.010044 0.015768 0.026990
2025-12-07 0.002343 0.003263 0.004619 0.006861 0.010681 0.017380 0.031253
2025-12-14 0.002209 0.003114 0.004469 0.006755 0.010750 0.017979 0.033605
2025-12-21 0.002080 0.002962 0.004304 0.006608 0.010727 0.018399 0.035653
2025-12-28 0.001983 0.002860 0.004217 0.006596 0.010967 0.019401 0.039322
2026-01-04 0.001920 0.002807 0.004205 0.006714 0.011467 0.021010 0.044867
2026-01-11 0.001826 0.002698 0.004092 0.006643 0.011593 0.021863 0.048775
2026-01-18 0.001744 0.002603 0.003997 0.006593 0.011754 0.022810 0.053202
2026-01-25 0.001659 0.002499 0.003878 0.006488 0.011790 0.023482 0.057060
2026-02-01 0.001604 0.002439 0.003832 0.006515 0.012100 0.024838 0.063362
2026-02-08 0.001536 0.002356 0.003739 0.006445 0.012194 0.025691 0.068401
2026-02-15 0.001462 0.002258 0.003613 0.006297 0.012103 0.026067 0.072012
2026-02-22 0.001425 0.002221 0.003594 0.006363 0.012495 0.027754 0.080808
2026-03-01 0.001410 0.002222 0.003644 0.006571 0.013240 0.030533 0.094917
2026-03-08 0.001353 0.002147 0.003549 0.006471 0.013244 0.031257 0.101265